Network-based modeling of hoof and mouth disease transmission in animals

Abstract

The connectivity of ranches facilitates the spread of hoof and mouth disease among livestock, even over long distances. This study aimed to investigate the spread of hoof and mouth disease within animal ranch networks and individual ranches using a network-based modelling approach. Two models were developed: the multi-ranch model and the in-ranch model. The multi-ranch model examined how the topology and connectivity of the ranch network influenced the spread of hoof and mouth disease, while the in-ranch compartmental model captured the disease dynamics within individual ranches. The results indicate that the disease can be contained, and the network can remain disease-free as long as the transmission rate is low and the network is not overly dense. In the in-ranch compartmental model, the basic reproduction number was used to gain insights into the vaccination coverage required to maintain a disease-free state within individual ranches, as well as the coverage needed across a larger ranch network. Additionally, the findings highlight the importance of understanding both network-level transmission dynamics and within-ranch disease progression to effectively model and manage hoof and mouth disease outbreaks. Furthermore, disease control strategies, such as vaccination, to minimize the spread of the disease, which can lead to declines in the production of milk, meat, manure, and raw materials, ultimately reducing both national and individual income due to livestock loss also investigated and recommended that maintaining a transmission rate below 0.044 and offering sufficient immunization coverage are essential for a multi-ranch to stay resilient against HMD illnesses. For individual ranches and ranch networks, applying a vaccination level below 0.195 is not essential since disease will not vanish, but a level over 0.327 keep both a single ranch and larger ranch community in disease-free state